If you’re exhausted with media hurtling dire
economic forecasts with a political agenda, you want to know What Ted Said.
If you don’t know who Ted Jones is, you might want to listen up. He is the chief economist for Stewart Title, internationally known as an applied real estate research expert, and gives 150 talks a year to major real estate organizations. There is a long, rich, resume in the fine print.
He was in town for two presentations, I attended on Tuesday, 11/19.
All of us are plagued with pundits whose
opinions have an agenda to keep us on edge for political gain. What Ted Said
quells the false storm. Key indicators are jobs and cheap energy. We have both.
So, what did Ted say?
THERE ARE NO INDICATORS OF RECESSION. Recession is defined as 2 + quarters of negative growth. It isn’t happening, nor does it seem to be looming over 2020.
Retail sales are 68% of the GDP, and it’s up 4.5% YoY September 2018-2019. That’s the highest rate that they have ever been. Old Navy announced plans to open 800 new stores in 2020. Online sales jump 36% when linked to brick and mortar, storefronts aren’t going away. Unemployment is at the lowest point in 50 years, 3.5%. In Minnesota, it is 2.4%. Wages increased by 1.8% in the last 12 months, the highest in 10 years. Hospitality and Leisure jobs surged +2.4% year over year to meet demand. Leisure spending shows consumer confidence.
Real estate gained 6% in sales YoY. There were 521,000 sales in October 2018 and 552,000 as of October 2019. That’s a +6% gain. Average home prices also increased to $272,000 a +6% gain. Interest rates are forecasted to slide into the 3-4% range. There will be 1.5 million new households in 2020, adding more pressure to find affordable housing. Boomers and Millenials are looking for the same thing, smaller, low maintenance, and affordable homes. McMansions are a thing of the past.
The i Buyer slice of sales is about 1%. I buyers are not new, “We Buy Ugly Houses,” Hedge funds like Blackstone (bought 1200 homes in MN during the recession), and investors have been around for a very long time. What’s different is the institutional buyer on a bigger scale. Even if Zillow reaches its goal of buying 5000 homes a month, it’s still only 1% of the market. It boils down to how much people are willing to pay for convenience. So far, the cost vs. benefit isn’t wildly appealing for most homeowners.
Minnesota economy is strong, with a few weak spots. Out of the 52 states, MN is ranked #45 in tax friendliness. Texas does way better, they have a 3% real estate tax, that’s it. The Texas Constitution doesn’t allow spending more than it takes in. Isn’t that an exciting thought? MN lost 14,000 jobs, and we have a 17% spike in mortgage delinquency. Farmers are being squeezed, but the tech and medical sectors are very growing.
Politics and economics are two separate entities, but politicians use the economy to scare you, threaten you, or even bribe you. Follow independent thinkers who offer information without a bone to pick. Ted Jones isn’t the only economist with a perspective, but one you might pick up a nugget or two. Check out the blog:http://blog.stewart.com, or his twitter account drtcj.
Give me a jingle if you’re thinking of making a move, or if you have friends or family that might need some help. Ph: 612 384 1360 Email: email@example.com
As more and more baby boomers enter retirement age, the question
of whether or not to sell their homes and move will become a hot topic. In
today’s housing market climate, with low available inventory in the starter and
trade-up home categories, it makes sense to evaluate your home’s ability to
adapt to your needs in retirement.
According to the National
Association of Exclusive Buyers Agents (NAEBA), there are 7
factors that you should consider when choosing your retirement
“It may be easy enough to afford your home
today but think long-term about your monthly costs. Account for property taxes,
insurance, HOA fees, utilities – all the things that will be due whether or not
you have a mortgage on the property.”
Would moving to a complex with homeowner association (HOA) fees
actually be cheaper than having to hire all the contractors you would need to
maintain your home, lawn, etc.? Would your taxes go down significantly if you
relocated? What is your monthly income going to be like in retirement?
“If you have equity in your current home, you
may be able to apply it to the purchase of your next home. Maintaining a
healthy amount of home equity gives you a source of emergency funds to tap, via
a home equity loan or reverse mortgage.”
The equity you have in your current home may be enough to
purchase your retirement home with little to no mortgage. Homeowners in the US
gained an average of over $16,300 in equity last year.
“As we age, our tolerance for cleaning
gutters, raking leaves and shoveling snow can go right out the window. A
condominium with low-maintenance needs can be a literal lifesaver, if your
health or physical abilities decline.”
As we mentioned earlier, would a condo with an HOA fee be worth
the added peace of mind in knowing that you do not have to do the maintenance
“Elderly homeowners can be targets for scams
or break-ins. Living in a home with security features, such as a manned gate
house, resident-only access and a security system can bring peace of mind.”
As scary as that thought may be, any additional security and an
extra set of eyes looking out for you always adds to peace of mind.
“Renting won’t do if the dog can’t come too!
The companionship of pets can provide emotional and physical benefits.”
Evaluate all of your options when it comes to bringing your
‘furever’ friend with you to a new home. Will there be necessary additional
deposits if you are renting or moving in to a condo? Is the backyard fenced in?
How far are you from your favorite veterinarian?
“No one wants to picture themselves in a
wheelchair or a walker, but the home layout must be able to accommodate limited
Sixty is the new 40, right? People are living longer and are
more active in retirement, but that doesn’t mean that down the road you won’t
need your home to be more accessible. Having to install handrails and make sure
that your hallways and doorways are wide enough may be a good reason to look
for a home that was built to accommodate these needs.
“Is the new home close to the golf course, or
to shopping and dining? Do you have amenities within easy walking distance?
This can add to home value!”
How close are you to your children and grandchildren? Would
relocating to a new area make visits with family easier or more frequent?
Beyond being close to your favorite stores and restaurants, there are a lot of
factors to consider.
comes to your forever home, evaluating your current house for its ability to
adapt with you as you age can be the first step to guaranteeing your comfort in
retirement. If after considering all these factors you find yourself curious
about your options, let’s get together to evaluate your ability to sell your
house in today’s market and get you into your dream retirement home!
Across the United States, there is a severe mismatch between the
low number of houses for sale and the high demand for those houses! First-time
homebuyers are out in force and are being met with a highly competitive summer
real estate market.
According to the National Association of
Realtors (NAR), the inventory of homes for
sale“has fallen year-over-year for 36 consecutive months,” and now
stands at a 4.1-month supply. A 6-month supply of inventory is necessary for a
balanced market and has not been seen since August of 2012.
NAR’s Chief Economist Lawrence Yun had this to
“Inventory coming onto the market during this year’s spring
buying season – as evidenced again by last month’s weak reading – was not even
close to being enough to satisfy demand.
That is why home prices keep outpacing incomes and listings are
going under contract in less than a month – and much faster – in many parts of
There Any Relief Coming?
According to the CoreLogic’s 2018 Consumer
Housing Sentiment Study, four times as many renters are
considering buying homes in the next 12 months than homeowners who are planning
to sell, “which is the crux of the available housing-supply imbalance.”
As more and more renters realize the benefits of homeownership,
the demand for housing will continue to rise.
Do homeowners realize demand is so high? With
home prices rising across the country, homeowners gained over a trillion
dollars in equity over the last 12 months, with the average homeowner gaining
The map below shows the breakdown by state:
Many homeowners who have not thought about listing their homes
may not even realize how much equity they have gained, or the opportunity
available to them in today’s market!
are one of the many homeowners across the country who hasn’t quite found their
forever home, now may be a great time to list your house for sale and find your
What is a Truth in Housing report, and why is it important? TIH is designed for the safety of ‘other people,’ and focuses on code items. Most homeowners know that all single-family and duplexes are required to provide a TIH report to buyers to review. Condos and triplexes, 4plexes are exempt.
I sat down with Luis Alcaraz of Inspectucasa who is a 15+ year veteran inspector of city required inspections in Minneapolis, St Paul, and most other surrounding suburbs. Here’s Luis’ heads up for homeowners on what inspectors look for, and homeowners overlook.
Smoke and carbon detectors have to be less than 10 years old and working. It’s common that homeowners think that smoke detectors live forever, and never replace them. There needs to be a smoke detector on each level, including basements and walk-up attics, and carbon detector within 10 feet of all the bedrooms. Combo detectors cover both. The lack of becomes an automatic RR.
The city always calls for backflow preventers on laundry faucets and outdoor spigots. It’s a $6 investment that allows water to flow in only one direction, prevent drinking water from contamination. Homes usually need only 2, one at the laundry, one outdoors,
Exposed light fixtures, meaning dangling and uncovered bulbs. The city and FHA appraisals require that they are covered by a bowl or protective bulb cover. The city doesn’t require that all outlets be covered with a plate (but will report it as a suggested correction (SC). Appraisals will require outlets to have a cover so no one accidentally sticks in a finger.
Provide access. Inspectors are required to look at the attic if there is one, check outlets, and review the garage. It’s always frustrating when they can’t access the attic because the homeowner has furniture or boxes blocking it. The same holds true for outlets and forgetting to unlock the garage. No access becomes an automatic RR, Required Repair, and the inspector has to make a 2nd and a 2nd feet for the trip back when it’s clear. When either the furnace, boiler, or water is turned off it becomes an automatic RR with the permit. Inspectors can’t turn on the gas or water, you will need both on and functioning.
The main drain needs to be open, have a ball in place to drain properly. Homeowners don’t always pay attention, the cover is dirty, and there is no ball. They aren’t expensive, and it’s probably a good idea to have it cleaned out. Because it’s on the basement floor it will clog up with dirt and debris over time.
The attic needs ventilation to the outside of the roof as do bathroom and kitchen vents. Sometimes a kitchen or bath vent is incorrectly installed to air into the attic which causes steam and vapors to be trapped in the attic and create soggy moldy insulation.
The kitchen stove requires an anti-trip bracket secured at the back of the stove to prevent it from tipping over while you are pulling the Thanksgiving turkey out to serve your family. It costs $5-$8 and saves dinners from sliding onto the floor, pulling the gas line out of whack, and general hysteria. Not part of TIH, but buyers will call it.
DIY plumbing; it’s a tip-off when P traps under the sinks or toilets are glued together with different materials. Minneapolis allows the homeowner to do their own plumbing repairs if it doesn’t involve gas. However, not all the DIY projects are done correctly, and it can lead to plumbing failure so you have to call a real plumber.
Adding a new dryer but leaving the old gas shut off valve. A new dryer requires a new shut off valve installation. The entire assembly must meet code, gas shut off and vent.
DIY homeowners think that they add electricity by double-tapping the electric panel. Double-tapping overloads the panel and can cause a short circuit, fire, and lines to implode. TIH is a visual inspection, but buyer inspection opens the panel and will call for it to be corrected. Swapping out a 2 prong socket for a 3 prong without grounding outlets can cause electrical fires, risk of shock, short circuit appliances. Adding a saddle clamp at the water supply is an illegal clamp, it will always leak. Some things are best left to plumbers or electricians.
A TIH inspection isn’t the same as a buyer’s inspection. While a TIH inspector reviews the structure, he will make comments but rarely call for Required Repair. He may mention cracks or water seepage, but will not call for a correction. A home inspector for the buyer has different criteria. If there are structural issues including bowing walls, or major cracks in the foundation, either a buyer’s home inspector or an appraiser could call for a structural engineer to evaluate the foundation.
As you might imagine, not all inspectors are equal, every report is an opinion of the findings. Inspectors aren’t licensed but they are certified. The most comprehensive training, American Home Inspectors Training, ASHI, requires 250 supervised inspections, two national tests. They are also required to complete 18 continuing education credits annually. You can count on Luis to do a thorough job, and explain any issues that come up: Luis Alcaraz, 612 743 8228, firstname.lastname@example.org. I only recommend professionals that I’ve had good experience with over the years, and who treat my clients like family.
If you are selling/buying a home in Minneapolis give me a call at (612) 384-1360 for expert advice from a 20+ year real estate veteran who knows that your move is life-changing. I move you home.